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Research and IPM
Interactive Tools and Models: Citrus Thrips Scarring
Prediction Model—Testing Phase*
San Joaquin Valley, California
This model, validated so far only in Tulare County, California, is a
first step in developing a reliable prediction of citrus thrips damage
with advance warning. It estimates the degree of first scarring of Navel
oranges by citrus thrips, Scirtothrips citri, from weather data
that accumulates prior to petal fall.
*Validation of this
model has been limited, and you are encouraged to test the model to see
if it is helpful to you under your field conditions. You can also
help us to test and improve
the model. Disclaimer: The University of California and the authors of
this model do not assume any responsibility and cannot be held liable for any
loss that may result from using predictions from this model.
Predictions are based on actual weather data. When a prediction is available
for a station (usually between March 17 and the end of April), it is posted here.
| County |
Active Weather Stations |
2009
Estimated damage |
Days with estimated temperatures |
| Fresno |
CARUTHERS-01.P, CAR | 43.8% |
0 of 93 days |
| Coalinga, NCDC #1864 | 38.6% |
4 of 85 days |
| Del_Rey/Fowler-01.P, DELF | 47.2% |
0 of 94 days |
| EASTON-01.P, EAS | 49.0% |
0 of 95 days |
| Firebaugh/Telles, CIMIS #7 | 48.1% |
0 of 94 days |
| Five Points/WSFS USDA, CIMIS #2 | 50.0% |
0 of 98 days |
| Five Points, NCDC #3083 | 47.5% |
34 of 88 days |
| Fresno State, CIMIS #80 | 44.8% |
1 of 96 days |
| Fresno Yosemite International Airport, NCDC #3257 | 24.9% |
5 of 90 days |
| Five Points South West, CIMIS #190 | 49.2% |
1 of 92 days |
| KERMAN-01.P, KER | 48.6% |
0 of 95 days |
| KINGSBURG-01.P, KNG | 47.0% |
0 of 93 days |
| Kearney_Ag_Ctr-01.P, KAC | 47.6% |
0 of 94 days |
| Laton_North-01.P, LATN | 49.6% |
2 of 93 days |
| Orange Cove, CIMIS #142 | 50.0% |
2 of 99 days |
| Panoche, CIMIS #124 | 45.3% |
0 of 97 days |
| Parlier, CIMIS #39 | 46.3% |
1 of 95 days |
| SAND_RANCH-01.P, SR1 | 49.5% |
0 of 92 days |
| Westlands, CIMIS #105 | 50.0% |
0 of 91 days |
| |
| Kern |
Arvin-Edison, CIMIS #125 | 44.8% |
1 of 87 days |
| Bakersfield WSO Airport, NCDC #0442 | 12.4% |
0 of 77 days |
| Blackwells Corner, CIMIS #54 | 47.0% |
4 of 93 days |
| Famoso, CIMIS #138 | 48.3% |
1 of 96 days |
| Belridge, CIMIS #146 | 41.5% |
3 of 89 days |
| Shafter/USDA, CIMIS #5 | 48.3% |
0 of 90 days |
| Wasco, NCDC #9452 | 34.5% |
32 of 84 days |
| |
| Madera |
FIREBAUGH/ALISO-01.P, FRBA | 49.8% |
0 of 94 days |
| Madera, CIMIS #145 | 50.0% |
1 of 99 days |
| Madera, NCDC #5233 | 44.9% |
3 of 95 days |
| Madera, Touchtone #32 | 8.8% |
0 of 84 days |
| Madera_North-01.P, MADN | 49.8% |
0 of 99 days |
| Ripperdan-02.P, RIP | 49.9% |
0 of 96 days |
| |
| Tulare |
Alpaugh, CIMIS #203 | 50.0% |
0 of 93 days |
| Delano, CIMIS #182 | 48.9% |
0 of 89 days |
| Lindcove, CIMIS #86 | 48.0% |
1 of 94 days |
| Lindsay, NCDC #4957 | 49.7% |
6 of 91 days |
| Porterville, CIMIS #169 | 50.0% |
2 of 98 days |
| Visalia, NCDC #9367 | 15.4% |
8 of 97 days |
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